Vulnerable Democrats Face Immigration Immigration Challenges
The House of Representatives impeached Department of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas for high crimes and misdemeanors. The next step is a Senate vote that will require a two-thirds majority to remove Mayorkas from his Cabinet position. But because at least six Senate Democrats are vulnerable in their 2024 re-election bids, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer may table the impeachment resolution.
By setting the House resolution aside, an action that’s never occurred in the nation’s history, Schumer would spare at-risk Democrats in states that the alien invasion has dramatically affected from voting against impeachment. An angered enough electorate sector that favors impeachment could represent the difference that turns over not only the individual Democratic seat to the GOP challenger, but might also shift Senate majority.
About twenty Senate Democrats and Independents who caucus with the party are up for re-elction. But, if no impeachment vote is held, the six Democratic senators that would benefit most from Schumer’s safe-haven ploy are Ohio’s Sherrod Brown, Montana’s Jon Tester, Nevada’s Jacky Rosen, Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey, Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin, and Arizona’s Kyrsten Sinema, an Independent who caucuses with Democrats. If immigration is voters’ top concern, then the six senators could be in deep water.
Analyzing the susceptible in the order listed above, Brown is campaigning in a state that has been trending Republican for several election cycles. Ohio voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020, and elected Republican JD Vance, an enforcement proponent over Rep. Tim Ryan (D). Ohio has had a continuous presence on the border since October 2020, when Governor Mike DeWine deployed approximately 115 members of the Ohio National Guard to support the Southwest Border operations. DeWine has also supplemented his national guard troops with an Ohio State Highway Patrol contingent. Brown, on the other hand, voted earlier this year for S.Amdt.1388 to H.R.815 to allow 5,000 illegal entries per day. The Republican senate primary is March 19.
Montana’s Tester is a Senate fixture who’s been elected in three consecutive cycles that began in 2006. Tester has repeatedly voted against bills that would enhance border and interior security. However, other high-ranking Montana officials differ with Tester on immigration. Attorney General Austin Knudsen pledged to work with Texas AG Ken Paxton to help stem the illegal alien tide. Knudsen also urged Congress to impeach Mayorkas. Earlier this month, Governor Greg Gianforte directed the Montana National Guard to work with Paxton on border security. The GOP senate primary is June 4.
Nevada’s Rosen, elected in 2018, is another senator who is soft on illegal immigration, perhaps because her state’s primary employer, the hospitality industry, relies on cheap labor. Like Tester, Rosen has consistently voted against bills that would strengthen border and interior security. For most Nevadans, immigration is a major concern which makes Rosen vulnerable. Nevada’s primary elections will be held on June 11.
Pennsylvania’s Casey is a three-term intrenched incumbent with no significant legislative accomplishments. Casey has steadfastly voted in favor of more employment-based visas, more liberal asylum regulations, and less enforcement. But the two largest cities in Pennsylvania are Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, both struggling to accommodate a continuous migrant flow.
Wisconsin’s Baldwin is yet another senator who has a dismal immigration voting record that includes a vote in favor of an amendment that would grant employment authorization instantly to illegal border crossers, an action that would expand the work force. The economy, along with immigration and border security, remain top issues with Wisconsin voters. Biden narrowly carried Wisconsin in 2020. August 13 is the GOP primary date.
Finally, Sinema’s Arizona represents one of the nation’s most illegal alien-overwhelmed states. In Tucson, migrants have created “homelessness on steroids.” Funds to support humanitarian assistance have dried up and additional money is unlikely. Three years ago, Sinema and Texas’ John Cornyn introduced a bill that would increase the capacity to manage the historically high numbers of migrants, increase the speed of adjudicating asylum claims, and aid local communities along the border. The proposed bill did nothing to enforce immigration laws, only to process more illegal aliens more quickly, and expedite their release into the interior. In 2023 and in early 2024, Sinema cast several votes that would loosen amnesty and refugee resettlement laws. Arizona moved its primary date up from early August to July 30.
Incumbents’ immigration failures have dealt Republicans a strong hand. Historically, however, the GOP has proven unable to convert pre-election winning hands into collecting the pot. During the lead up to the 2022 election, GOP leaders predicted a red tsunami. After the ballots were tallied, Democrats retained Senate control and Republicans barely held onto the House. Time will tell whether 2024 will be different from past election years.
Joe Guzzardi is a Project for Immigration Reform analyst who has written about immigration for more than 30 years. Contact him at jguzzardi@yahoo.com
